About CFI

The Consensus Fragility Index (CFI) is built on a simple observation: market consensus is often wrong at critical inflection points. Analysts converge on a thesis, and that thesis becomes the baseline expectation—until something breaks it.

Rather than trying to predict the future, we analyze when the market's consensus thesis is most vulnerable to breaking. We do this by tracking 50 S&P 500 companies through their earnings cycles, extracting the core assumptions that analysts are making, and monitoring for evidence that contradicts those assumptions.

Our AI reads what analysts write—not just their numbers. It identifies the thesis pillars buried in reports and systematically tests them against incoming news and data. When contradictions pile up, fragility rises. The result is a single score that tells you how vulnerable the consensus really is—before earnings reveal the truth.