Know whenconsensus breaks
CFI tracks 50 S&P 500 companies through their earnings cycles, identifying when market consensus is structurally vulnerable. We're validating the framework through Q2 2026 earnings. Join early access—it's free while we prove it works.
How it works
From raw data to actionable fragility scores in four steps.
Ingest
We aggregate analyst estimates to build a complete picture of market expectations for each ticker.
Ingest
We aggregate analyst estimates to build a complete picture of market expectations for each ticker.
Extract
Our AI reads analyst reports and news to identify the core assumptions supporting the consensus thesis.
Extract
Our AI reads analyst reports and news to identify the core assumptions supporting the consensus thesis.
Detect
We continuously monitor for evidence that contradicts the thesis pillars—data points the market may be ignoring.
Detect
We continuously monitor for evidence that contradicts the thesis pillars—data points the market may be ignoring.
Calculate
The fragility score reflects how vulnerable the consensus is to breaking based on contradiction severity and coverage.
Calculate
The fragility score reflects how vulnerable the consensus is to breaking based on contradiction severity and coverage.
CFI watches the market so you don't have to.
Add a stock to your watchlist, get notified when it matters.
The story of a consensus breaking
Every stock tells a story between earnings. Scroll to see how we track it.
Pick a ticker
We track 50 S&P 500 stocks through each earnings cycle—from one call to the next.
Tesla Inc.
Consumer Cyclical
See the consensus
Our AI extracts the core assumptions analysts are making. These are the pillars holding up the bull or bear thesis.
What the market believes
FSD/Autopilot technology will drive autonomous vehicle revenue growth
Energy infrastructure will benefit from AI data center boom
AI and robotics expansion will create new revenue streams
EV market leadership will sustain despite competition
Spot the cracks
We scan news daily for evidence that contradicts those assumptions. Each crack weakens the thesis.
Evidence challenging the thesis
FSD/Autopilot technology will drive autonomous vehicle revenue growth
California judge ruled Tesla's FSD marketing has been deceptive
Consumer Tech News · 3d ago · Strength: 80%
Energy infrastructure will benefit from AI data center boom
China's power generation capacity is 3x larger than US
Energy Report · 3d ago · Strength: 60%
Measure the pressure
The fragility score quantifies how vulnerable the consensus is. Higher score = more likely to break on earnings.
Historical break rate: 73%
Watch the countdown
Pressure builds until earnings day—when reality meets expectations. Fragile consensus often breaks spectacularly.
Built for the AI-native workflow
Query fragility data directly from your AI workflow—no context switching, no extra tabs. Just ask in ChatGPT.
For informational and research purposes only. Not investment advice.
Who this is for
Built for investors who analyze narrative risk
CFI isn't a buy/sell signal—it's an analytical framework for understanding when market consensus might be vulnerable. Most tools measure valuation. We map the logical structure of consensus and identify which assumptions are most exposed to contradiction.
This research framework helps if you
Analyze earnings setups and want to understand which narrative pillars consensus relies on
Conduct independent research and need a systematic approach to stress-test investment theses
Study position risk and want structured thinking about what could invalidate current market assumptions
Write analysis or commentary and need a framework for identifying under-explored angles
What makes CFI different
Traditional research tells you what consensus expects. CFI shows you how that consensus is constructed and what incoming data would contradict its foundational assumptions. We don't forecast outcomes—we analyze the fragility of existing narratives.
Think of it as architecture review for investment stories. You get a fragility assessment (0-100), estimated break probability, and most importantly: the specific contradictions and data points that would challenge consensus between now and the next catalyst.
Designed for
Early Access
CFI is free during our validation phase.
We calibrated the fragility formula on 152 historical earnings events. Now we're testing it forward on live data through Q2 2026 earnings— we'll publish every prediction and every result.
What you get:
- Full access to 50 S&P 500 tickers
- Pillar analysis and contradiction detection
- Fragility scores updated daily
- 10 AI chat sessions per month
If CFI proves useful, we'll introduce paid tiers. If it doesn't, we'll tell you that too.