Know whenconsensus breaks
CFI is the Consensus Fragility Index—an AI-powered system that monitors market assumptions and detects when they're about to break. We don't predict what happens. We predict when everyone else is wrong.
How it works
From raw data to actionable fragility scores in four steps.
Ingest
We aggregate analyst estimates to build a complete picture of market expectations for each ticker.
Ingest
We aggregate analyst estimates to build a complete picture of market expectations for each ticker.
Extract
Our AI reads analyst reports and news to identify the core assumptions supporting the consensus thesis.
Extract
Our AI reads analyst reports and news to identify the core assumptions supporting the consensus thesis.
Detect
We continuously monitor for evidence that contradicts the thesis pillars—data points the market may be ignoring.
Detect
We continuously monitor for evidence that contradicts the thesis pillars—data points the market may be ignoring.
Calculate
The fragility score reflects how vulnerable the consensus is to breaking based on contradiction severity and coverage.
Calculate
The fragility score reflects how vulnerable the consensus is to breaking based on contradiction severity and coverage.
The result is a single number that tells you how fragile the market's consensus really is—before earnings reveal the truth.
The story of a consensus breaking
Every stock tells a story between earnings. Scroll to see how we track it.
Pick a ticker
We track 50 S&P 500 stocks through each earnings cycle—from one call to the next.
Tesla Inc.
Consumer Cyclical
See the consensus
Our AI extracts the core assumptions analysts are making. These are the pillars holding up the bull or bear thesis.
What the market believes
FSD/Autopilot technology will drive autonomous vehicle revenue growth
Energy infrastructure will benefit from AI data center boom
AI and robotics expansion will create new revenue streams
EV market leadership will sustain despite competition
Spot the cracks
We scan news daily for evidence that contradicts those assumptions. Each crack weakens the thesis.
Evidence challenging the thesis
FSD/Autopilot technology will drive autonomous vehicle revenue growth
California judge ruled Tesla's FSD marketing has been deceptive
Consumer Tech News · 3d ago · Strength: 80%
Energy infrastructure will benefit from AI data center boom
China's power generation capacity is 3x larger than US
Energy Report · 3d ago · Strength: 60%
Measure the pressure
The fragility score quantifies how vulnerable the consensus is. Higher score = more likely to break on earnings.
Historical break rate: 73%
Watch the countdown
Pressure builds until earnings day—when reality meets expectations. Fragile consensus often breaks spectacularly.
Current fragility: 71
When pressure meets the catalyst, fragile consensus breaks.
Built for the AI-native workflow
CFI is becoming a ChatGPT app. Query fragility data directly from your AI workflow—no context switching, no extra tabs. Just ask.
Simple pricing. Start free.
No credit card required. Upgrade when you need more.
Free
For individual researchers getting started
- 50 S&P 500 tickers
- Daily fragility updates
- Thesis pillar analysis
- Contradiction detection
- ChatGPT app (coming soon)
- Web dashboard access
Pro
Coming SoonFor professional researchers and analysts
- 500+ tickers
- Real-time updates
- Historical fragility data
- API access
- Advanced analytics
- Priority support